Dom Di Francesco, PhD, CEng

thoughts on risk, uncertainty, statistics and decisions

The Turing Podcast

My coffee pod episode
Podcast
Bayes
Engineering
Dogs
Last year, I participated in an episode of the Alan Turing Institute’s Coffee Pod podcast. It was hosted by my friend Bea and we talked about my background in engineering…
Jan 25, 2024
Domenic Di Francesco

Who Am I?

A football trivia guessing game
Football
R
Shiny
At a previous job, my colleagues and I would occasionally create football (soccer) quizzes for each other. The game I used to send them would involve me sequentially sending…
Mar 21, 2023
Domenic Di Francesco

Bayes@Lund2023

Bayes
Stan
Julia
Decisions
Value of Information
A recording of my presentation on value of information analysis at the Bayes@Lund2023 conference.
Jan 23, 2023
Domenic Di Francesco
 

All Your Bayes 2.0

news
I’ve recreated this site in quarto, and plan on writing more jargon-free articles on risk, uncertainty, decisions, statistics, and football.
Jan 23, 2023

Uncertainty in xG. Part 2

Partially (Optimally) Pooling Hierarchical Data
football
analysis
xg
Stan
uncertainty
Bayes
multi-level modelling
partial pooling
This is part 2 of an article on fitting a Bayesian partial pooling model to predict expected goals. It has the benefits of (a) quantifying aleatory and epistemic uncertainty…
Jan 7, 2021
Domenic Di Francesco

Uncertainty in xG. Part 1

An Overview
football
analysis
xg
Stan
uncertainty
Bayes
multi-level modelling
partial pooling
The Expected Goals (xG) metric is now widely recognised as numerical measure of the quality of a goal scoring opportunity in a football (soccer) match. In this article we…
Dec 10, 2020
Domenic Di Francesco

Decisions under Uncertainty. Part 1

Connecting Modelling and Actions
Decision Analysis
Uncertainty
Julia
Optimisation
Bayesian
For many of you reading this, developing and testing predictive models will be a lot of fun - but my pragmatic, buzz-killing message here, is that we shouldn’t forget why…
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Domenic Di Francesco

Player Form. Part 1

An Overview
football
analysis
Stan
uncertainty
Bayes
gaussian process
When is a player in form (over performing, or enjoying a hot streak) and how long does this last? If there is such an effect, I suspect it will be a result of some…
Jan 19, 2023
Domenic Di Francesco

Why be Bayesian?

Bayes
uncertainty
decisions
This post is intended to be a high-level discussion of the merits and challenges of applied Bayesian statistics. It is intended to help the reader answer: Is it worth me…
Mar 24, 2020
Domenic Di Francesco

Bayesian Logistic Regression with Stan

Bayes
Logistic Regression
MCMC
Stan
R
Logistic regression is a popular statistical model for making predictions on outcomes between zero and one - like probabilities. One application of it in an engineering…
Feb 15, 2020
Domenic Di Francesco
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