The Turing Podcast
My coffee pod episode
Podcast
Bayes
Engineering
Dogs
Last year, I participated in an episode of the Alan Turing Institute’s Coffee Pod podcast. It was hosted by my friend Bea and we talked about my background in engineering, my PhD and transition into computational statistics and machine…
Bayes@Lund2023
Bayes
Stan
Julia
Decisions
Value of Information
A recording of my presentation on value of information analysis at the Bayes@Lund2023 conference.
Player Form. Part 1
An Overview
football
analysis
Stan
uncertainty
Bayes
gaussian process
When is a player in form (over performing, or enjoying a hot streak) and how long does this last? If there is such an effect, I suspect it will be a result of some complicated system of personal…
Uncertainty in xG. Part 2
Partially (Optimally) Pooling Hierarchical Data
football
analysis
xg
Stan
uncertainty
Bayes
multi-level modelling
partial pooling
This is part 2 of an article on fitting a Bayesian partial pooling model to predict expected goals. It has the benefits of (a) quantifying aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, and (b) making both group-level (player-specific) and population-level (team-specific) probabilistic predictions. If you are interested in these ideas but not…
Uncertainty in xG. Part 1
An Overview
football
analysis
xg
Stan
uncertainty
Bayes
multi-level modelling
partial pooling
The Expected Goals (xG) metric is now widely recognised as numerical measure of the quality of a goal scoring opportunity in a football (soccer) match. In this article we consider how to deal with uncertainty in predicting xG, and how each players individual…
No matching items