### Player form. Part 1: Overview

football

analysis

Stan

uncertainty

Bayes

gaussian process

When is a player

**in form**(over performing, or enjoying a hot streak) and how long does this last? If there is such an effect, I suspect it will be a result of some complicated system of personal…### Uncertainty in xG. Part 2: Partial Pooling

football

analysis

xg

Stan

uncertainty

Bayes

multi-level modelling

partial pooling

This is part 2 of an article on fitting a Bayesian partial pooling model to predict expected goals. It has the benefits of (a) quantifying

*aleatory and epistemic*uncertainty, and (b) making both group-level (player-specific) and population-level (team-specific) probabilistic predictions. If you are interested in these ideas but not…### Uncertainty in xG. Part 1: Overview

football

analysis

xg

Stan

uncertainty

Bayes

multi-level modelling

partial pooling

The Expected Goals (xG) metric is now widely recognised as numerical measure of the

*quality*of a goal scoring opportunity in a football (soccer) match. In this article we consider how to deal with uncertainty in predicting xG, and how each players individual…
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